Policy Signal Velocity
The only dimension that measures a rate of change rather than a state. It moves before Trade and Macro do — this page exists to prove that.
United States
United States scores 72 of 100 on the pace of regulatory action it is exposed to — high — ranking 42 of 192 countries we track. The velocity index sits at 1.41 against a 12-month baseline of 1.00, 41% above the acceleration threshold, and has held above that line for 6 consecutive quarters. Entrenched. Five or more consecutive quarters above 1.0 — the strongest forward signal this model produces.
A reading of 1.41 means United States issued 41% more weighted regulatory actions in the last 90 days than its own 12-month average. Anything above 1.00 is acceleration; below it, policy is cooling. Quarter on quarter the index moved +0.09.
Above the line since Q2·25. Entrenched. Five or more consecutive quarters above 1.0 — the strongest forward signal this model produces.
Already in force. No further procedural step is needed for it to bite, which is why it carries triple weight.
Agency rulemaking that has cleared comment. Effective on a known date, so it is close to certain but not yet operative.
Intent, not law. Most never pass — a high bill count with no enactments is signalling noise, not pressure.
42 actions → 78 weighted points. 82% of the weight comes from instruments already in force. Weighted toward instruments already in force — this is executed policy, not proposed policy.
6% of measures in the last four quarters were rescinded, stayed or materially amended inside 180 days. Trajectory confidence: high. What is announced here tends to stick, so the index reads as durable policy direction.
United States's velocity index crossed 1.00 in Q2·25. By Q4·25 — 2 quarters later — trade & supply had moved +0 points and macro stress +0 points, and +12 / +9 points by today. Scanning lags 0–3 quarters, the tightest fit between the change in velocity and the change in the structural scores is at 0 quarters (trade r=0.69, macro r=0.77). This is the single reason velocity earns a dimension of its own: it turns before the structural scores do.
A wave of tariff bills on steel is a different signal for a steel importer than for a software company. The country index averages that away; the sector view does not. Free shows the two heaviest sectors.
| Country | Index | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Sudan | 1.62 | 100 |
| Syria | 1.68 | 100 |
| Yemen | 1.72 | 100 |
| Central African Rep. | 1.42 | 100 |
| Somalia | 1.62 | 100 |
| South Sudan | 1.48 | 100 |
| Afghanistan | 1.68 | 100 |
| Libya | 1.52 | 97 |
“Notify me on any enacted executive order affecting semiconductors in United States” is a different subscription from “notify me on any regulatory mention”. Pro lets you set the first.
- Trigger on enacted law / EO only, ignoring introduced bills
- Trigger when the index crosses 1.00, or holds above it for N quarters
- Trigger on a sector, not just a country
- Reversal alerts when a tracked measure is rescinded inside 180 days
Free gives you today’s reversal rate and what it means for trust in the trajectory. Pro gives you the trend — the thing that tells you whether the churn is structural or a one-off.
Weighted action count over the last 90 days divided by the same measure across the trailing 12 months. 1.00 is the acceleration threshold.
- Weight40%
- Today1.41×
- ConfidenceHigh
Enacted laws, executive orders and final rules. Instrument-weighted 3× and 2× because they are already in force.
- Weight30%
- Today28
- ConfidenceHigh
Introduced legislation, weighted 1× and discounted 40% in election years because introduction spikes for signalling reasons.
- Weight20%
- Today14
- ConfidenceMedium
Share rescinded, stayed or materially amended inside 180 days. Applied as a trust weight on the direction of travel.
- Weight10%
- Today6%
- ConfidenceMedium
Score = 0.40·Index + 0.30·Actions + 0.20·Bills + 0.10·Reversal, each input normalised 0–100. Sustained duration (6 consecutive quarters above 1.00) is reported separately because it is a predictor of the 6–9 month lag to trade impact, not a component of today’s level. This dimension is behavioural and leading: it is noisier and faster-moving than the structural dimensions, and it is meant to be.
Velocity tells you something is coming. Pro tells you what it hits.
The leading-indicator overlay, sector-tagged instruments, reversal trends and alerting on the instrument types that actually matter to your book.