Dimension 05 · system-level
USD Dominance Watch
Is the world moving away from the dollar — and fast enough to matter for you?
The dollar is still dominant but slowly losing share: reserve holdings are drifting down about half a point a year, while the plumbing for non-dollar settlement is growing much faster. Watch momentum, not the reserve line — it moves first.
This page is measured for the world, not for one country. Reserve share, payment rails and swap lines are system-level readings — they do not change when you switch the country selector. What does change is the country attachment section: how exposed United States is to the shift, and how fast it is moving.
Key signal — Q1 2026
Multipolar Currency Momentum has held above 25 for 8 straight quarters. That pattern historically runs two to six quarters ahead of a visible fall in dollar reserve share. Fragmentation is accelerating (+4.1 over the last four quarters vs +3.8 the four before).
01 · Structural
Dollar Dependence Index
62.4
↓ -1.2 (4Q rolling) · Declining
Rate of changeSteadylast quarter -0.2
How deeply the world still depends on the US dollar — through central bank reserves, trade invoicing and payment systems. 100 means peak historical dependence; 62.4 reflects a slow but sustained drift away.
- USD reserve share: 57.4% (IMF COFER Q3 2025)
- Peak-to-now: -13.7pp from 71.1% (Q1 2000)
- Trend: -0.6pp/year (16-quarter fit)
02 · Leading indicator
Financial Fragmentation Index
48.7
↑ +3.8 (4Q rolling) · Accelerating
Rate of changeAcceleratinglast quarter +0.8
The forces actively pushing the financial system apart — sanctions pressure, non-dollar payment infrastructure and capital controls. Fragmentation builds well before reserve share visibly falls.
- OFAC SDN list: 15,000+ entities (post-2022 surge)
- Alternative rails: CIPS 1,448 participants · SPFS 500+
- Capital controls: 82 countries with restrictions
03 · Momentum · earliest signal
Multipolar Currency Momentum
31.2
↑ +2.1 (4Q rolling) · Above 25 threshold × 5Q
Rate of changeSlowinglast quarter +0.9
How fast alternatives to the dollar are gaining real traction — rising CNY usage, digital currency adoption and local-currency swap lines. Sustained above 25 for four quarters, structural movement usually follows within two to six.
- CNY SWIFT share: 4.7% (Jan 2026) vs 1.9% (2020)
- Central bank digital currencies piloting or live: 47 countries
- RMB swap lines: 40+ central banks
Dollar share of global reserves, 2000 → today
57.4% today, down from 71.1% in 2000 · free to read and share
Dashed line is the long-run trend: roughly half a percentage point a year. At that pace the dollar is still the majority reserve asset well into the 2040s — which is exactly why the faster-moving indices below matter more than this one.
Share of cross-border payments
MonthlyOfficial30-day settlement lagPayments routed through China’s own network are not counted here, so real CNY usage is higher than this shows.
CIPS participants
MonthlyOfficial30-day settlement lagInstitutions able to clear CNY without a dollar correspondent bank: 688 in 2018, 1,448 now.
Financial Fragmentation — full history
13 quarters · 48.7 today
Free tier sees the shape and today’s value. Fragmentation added +4.1 points over the last four quarters against +3.8 the four before — accelerating.
Pro adds the full index history, quarter-on-quarter decomposition and the contribution of each input (sanctions, rails, capital controls).
Multipolar Momentum — full history
13 quarters · above 25 for 8Q
The earliest of the three signals. It crossed 25 8 quarters ago and has not fallen back since — the condition that historically precedes a structural reserve move.
Pro adds threshold alerting, the per-input breakdown (CNY usage, CBDC status, swap lines) and the lead-lag fit against reserve share.
Free panels — live and official data
Reserve Holdings
USD 57.4% of global reserves — down 13.7pp from the 2000 peak.
What central banks actually hold. The most authoritative slow-moving signal of dollar displacement. Feeds Macro Stress — leverage capacity.
| Indicator | Current | Source · cadence | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD share of global FX reserves | 57.4% | IMF COFER · Quarterly | 62.4 |
| EUR / CNY / GBP / JPY shares | 20.0% / 2.8% / 4.6% / 5.5% | IMF COFER · Quarterly | Structural |
| Peak-to-now decline (pp) | -13.7pp from 71.1% | COFER own calc · Quarterly | Declining |
| Reserve currency concentration | 0.38 (2025) vs 0.52 (2000) | COFER derived · Quarterly | Diversifying |
| Emerging vs advanced USD share | EM: 54.2% · Adv: 59.1% | COFER disaggregated · Quarterly | EM leading |
Dimension: Macro Stress — leverage capacity · Confidence: low (90-day structural lag)
Sanctions & Fragmentation
15,000+ SDN-listed entities — the single largest de-dollarisation incentive since 2022.
- OFAC SDN listed entities: 15,000+ — post-2022 growth is the primary de-dollarization incentive (live)
- Sanctioned-state non-USD trade: est. 38% for Russia, ~65% Iran — directional only, high uncertainty
- Active bilateral clearing pacts: 34 (post-2020) vs 6 (2018-2020)
- Countries with capital controls: 82 — IMF AREAER Chapter 5 · Annual
- Defection event severity (1-3): avg 2.1 for 2022-2025 — above historical mean
Dimension: Statecraft (exposure + posture) — extends the live OFAC pipeline
Country attachment — what this means for United States
Risk faced · dollar dependence
United States
United States remains anchored to dollar clearing. De-dollarisation reaches it through its counterparties, not through its own policy.
Dollar dependence85of 100
De-dollarisation momentum8Anchored
USD-denominated external contracting~78%
Alternative rail accessDollar-core: correspondent banking, no material alternative rail
Re-denomination pressure window8+ quarters
Read as exposure: the higher the dollar share of United States's trade and debt, the further a dollar-side action reaches into it.
Fastest movers on momentum
The earliest-warning layer: where non-dollar settlement is being built fastest.
Russia96Fast mover
Iran96Fast mover
Syria84Fast mover
China82Fast mover
Yemen80Fast mover
North Korea80Fast mover
What de-dollarisation costs your business
Modelled for United States
Roughly 78% of United States's external contracting is still dollar-denominated. On current momentum, expect counterparty pressure to re-denominate within 8+ quarters.
- Roughly 47% of receivables sit in contracts exposed to a settlement or conversion change if counterparties push for local-currency terms.
- The headline reserve-share number understates this: it moves ~0.5pp a year, while counterparty settlement preferences can change in a single contract cycle.
- Watchlist markets moving fastest right now: Russia, Iran, Syria.
Pro models your own contract book: currency mix by counterparty country, hedging cost under each momentum path, and alerting when a counterparty market crosses the momentum threshold.
Analyst panels — Pro
Trade Invoicing
Monthly · Modelled · 6-12 month research lag
USD prices roughly half of world trade — but CNY invoicing is up 3.4pp since 2020.
Pro opens the full trade invoicing panel — every indicator, its source and its cross-dimension read.
Payment Systems
Monthly · Official · 30-day settlement lag
CIPS at 1,448 participants — each one can settle CNY without a dollar correspondent.
Pro opens the full payment systems panel — every indicator, its source and its cross-dimension read.
Market Depth
Daily · Official · Same-day pricing
Cross-currency basis at -18bp — the dollar scarcity premium has not gone away.
Pro opens the full market depth panel — every indicator, its source and its cross-dimension read.
CBDCs & Digital Rails
Quarterly · Official · Tracker refresh cycle
47 countries in advanced pilot, up from 14 in 2020.
Pro opens the full cbdcs & digital rails panel — every indicator, its source and its cross-dimension read.
Corporate & Sovereign Adaptation
Quarterly · Official · World Bank QEDS cycle
EM Asia USD sovereign debt share down to 28% from 38% in 2010.
Pro opens the full corporate & sovereign adaptation panel — every indicator, its source and its cross-dimension read.
Narrative & Rhetoric
Daily · Modelled · GDELT language model
Currency-sovereignty rhetoric running 340% above the 2018-21 baseline.
Pro opens the full narrative & rhetoric panel — every indicator, its source and its cross-dimension read.
Track the dollar system in real time.
The Pro suite adds live settlement-rail data, full index history, cross-dimension click-through and threshold alerting on momentum and swap-line changes.
Framework: DDM v2.1 · Sources: IMF COFER · SWIFT · CIPS · FRED · Confidence: low-medium (structural lag)