Aug 6, 2026Sign in
Today’s verdict

United States

35/100
Elevated+2.5 ↗ 7d

United States is carrying elevated geoeconomic pressure, driven above all by policy velocity. It ranks 167 of 192 countries tracked. Recommended stance: hedge.

Read the policy velocity chapterContinuous risk 36.3/100
Free view — daily snapshot, one country in focus, not saved between visits.
StatecraftSanctions and export-control pressure.18+3.0 ↗Policy velocityHow fast the rules are changing.72+8.0 ↗Trade & supplyConcentration in physical goods flows.28-2.0 ↘Macro stressDebt, currency and demand pressure.22+1.0 ↗
What moved
Last 7 days
01 Apr — high
BIS final rule: 23 Chinese semiconductor firms added to Entity List
31 Mar — elevated
Executive Order 14261: critical minerals supply chain security framework issued
28 Mar — signal
Fed: PCE inflation 2.8% — above target for 3rd consecutive month
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Highest pressure worldwide
192 countries scored · equal weighting
CountryScore
Syria100
Yemen98
North Korea98
Iran97
Sudan97
Cuba97
Venezuela97
Afghanistan95
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What goes into the score
Every input, weight and refresh cadence — published in full
Statecraft

Sanctions and export-control pressure.

  • OFAC35%
  • BIS25%
  • Sectoral22%
  • Secondary10%
  • Overlap8%
OFAC/BIS pipelines live · daily refresh
Policy velocity

How fast the rules are changing.

  • Vel.index40%
  • Actions30%
  • Bills20%
  • Reversal10%
Federal Register/EU OJ · daily refresh
Trade & supply

Concentration in physical goods flows.

  • HHI (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index)30%
  • Critical inputs35%
  • Chokepoint15%
  • Port dev.20%
UN Comtrade quarterly · 3–6 month lag
Macro stress

Debt, currency and demand pressure.

  • Debt40%
  • CDS25%
  • REER20%
  • PMI15%
IMF WEO semi-annual · market proxies daily

The four dimensions are averaged equally into the composite shown above. Free access uses the daily snapshot; Pro reads the same model off live feeds.

Dimension weighting
The public index weights all four dimensions equally at 25%.
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Risk trajectory
United States · projection from today's reading
PRO
Today36
In 30 days67range 62–74 · Worsening outlook

30-day projection: 67/100 (+30.7pt) — may cross into Reduce band. Band: 62–74. 3/4 dimensions trending upward — trajectory elevated.

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Exposure by counterparty
Your suppliers, markets and financing lines, scored
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