Trade & Supply Chain
Where the physical goods actually move — and which single point of failure would stop them.
United States
United States's import sourcing is diversified (HHI 0.09), and its single heaviest corridor dependency is Panama Canal at 88/100. 3 of the six headline chokepoints are running outside their normal band right now.
Click a chokepoint or a lane for transit trend, what flows through it and how much of United States’s trade depends on it.
HHI 0.09 — Import sourcing is spread widely. A single partner disruption is absorbable. The index is the sum of the squared partner shares, so it punishes a single dominant supplier far harder than a long tail.
A 40% collapse in transits only matters if you depend on that corridor. This score is the deviation on every tracked chokepoint weighted by how much of United States’s trade actually passes through it.
89% of agri-food inputs into United States cross Panama Canal — mainly grain, fertiliser, refrigerated cargo. Transit there is +16% against last year. A country score does not tell an automotive buyer anything; this does. It is also the hardest layer to source — it requires mapping trade flows down to industry input dependencies, which is exactly why it is not free.
Two illustrative lanes, scored against today’s live conditions. Pro replaces them with yours — and alerts you when a lane you actually ship on changes status.
| Material | Source | Dep. |
|---|---|---|
| Staple grain and fertiliser | Brazil | 60 |
| Lithium (carbonate, hydroxide) | China | 54 |
| Gallium & germanium | China | 52 |
| Enriched uranium / nuclear fuel | Russia | 52 |
| Cobalt | DR Congo | 47 |
| Semiconductor inputs (wafers, photoresist) | Taiwan | 41 |
“Critical dependency 34/100” is a headline. Staple grain and fertiliser at 60/100 from Brazil, crossing Bosporus Strait, with seasonal — substitution is a harvest cycle away — that is a decision.
- 2 days agoPanama Canal: 28-day transits up 16% against prior year
- 5 days agoYucatán Channel: 28-day transits up 4.3% against prior year
- 9 days agoLuzon Strait: 28-day transits up 7.9% against prior year
- 13 days agoWindward Passage: 28-day transits up 3% against prior year
| Country | HHI | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Belarus | 0.38 | 100 |
| Iran | 0.38 | 100 |
| Sudan | 0.38 | 100 |
| Syria | 0.38 | 100 |
| Yemen | 0.38 | 100 |
| Eritrea | 0.38 | 100 |
| Somalia | 0.38 | 100 |
| South Sudan | 0.38 | 100 |
| Source | Cadence | Lag |
|---|---|---|
| AIS vessel transits (chokepoints, ports) | Live · 24h refresh | 0–1 days High confidence |
| UN Comtrade partner shares (HHI) | Quarterly | 60–120 days Medium confidence |
| National customs — critical materials | Monthly | 30–45 days Medium confidence |
| Industry input-output mapping | Annual, modelled forward | 12 months+ Modelled |
Herfindahl-Hirschman Index on import partner shares. Sum of squared shares, rescaled 0–100.
- Weight30%
- Today0.09
- ConfidenceMedium
Dependency on materials with no near-term substitute — semiconductor inputs, pharma APIs, rare earths, lithium, cobalt.
- Weight25%
- Today34
- ConfidenceMedium
AIS transit deviation across 28 maritime chokepoints, weighted by this country’s dependency on each.
- Weight30%
- Today31
- ConfidenceHigh
28-day call and throughput volume at principal ports against the same window last year.
- Weight15%
- Today-0.3%
- ConfidenceHigh
Score = 0.30·HHI + 0.25·Critical inputs + 0.30·Chokepoint pressure + 0.15·Port deviation, each input normalised 0–100. Chokepoint and port inputs are observed off live AIS; partner concentration and critical-input dependency carry a publication lag of a quarter or more, which is why they are tagged Medium rather than High.
You can see the map. Pro puts your own lanes on it.
All 28 chokepoints live with history, the commodity and industry filters, sector-level exposure, and alerting the moment a corridor you ship on moves.