Macro Stress
Not an external threat — a measure of shock absorption. The same sanction, tariff or rule change lands harder on a country with thin buffers than on one with deep ones.
United States
United States scores 22 of 100 on macro stress it carries, ranking 190 of 192 countries we track. Debt sits at 122% of GDP against the IMF’s 60% elevated and 80% high lines, the composite PMI prints 52.1 (expansion), and the currency is above its five-year trend by 1.2%.
What the market charges to insure this government's debt against default. The fastest-moving number on this page — it reprices daily and usually turns before the official statistics do.
How much borrowing already sits on the sovereign balance sheet. It decides whether a government can spend its way through a shock or has to tighten into one.
A survey of purchasing managers, scaled around 50. Below 50 the economy is contracting, so demand is shrinking exactly when external pressure lands.
Where the trade-weighted currency sits against its own five-year average. A sharp deviation either imports inflation or destroys competitiveness — and it is what turns a foreign receivable into a loss.
United States runs 72/100 on policy velocity with strong buffers underneath it. On a like-for-like basis that pressure behaves like 88/100 here. The uplift is modest because the balance sheet can take the hit — the same shock elsewhere would land far harder. This is the financial-accelerator effect: buffers, not the shock, decide the outcome.
Debt above 230% of GDP but domestically held and cheaply funded: a large fiscal and monetary shock passed through without a spread event. Level of debt matters less than who holds it and at what rate.
Free shows the last four months of CDS and the 60-day currency deviation. The CDS path is the one to watch between official releases — it moves daily while the debt figure waits for the next WEO.
If you are owed money, hold assets or carry local debt in United States, the currency line above is not an abstract score — it is a translation gain or loss that lands in your accounts this quarter.
Import-heavy and leveraged businesses take macro stress straight to margin. Exporters earning hard currency can gain from the same move — the country score alone will not tell you which side you are on.
| Country | Score |
|---|---|
| Iran | 100 |
| Lebanon | 100 |
| Sudan | 100 |
| Syria | 100 |
| Yemen | 100 |
| Central African Rep. | 100 |
| Eritrea | 100 |
| Somalia | 100 |
What the market charges to insure this government's debt against default. The fastest-moving number on this page — it reprices daily and usually turns before the official statistics do.
- Weight25%
- Today18bp
- CadenceDaily
- ConfidenceHigh
How much borrowing already sits on the sovereign balance sheet. It decides whether a government can spend its way through a shock or has to tighten into one.
- Weight40%
- Today122%
- CadenceSemi-annual
- ConfidenceMedium
A survey of purchasing managers, scaled around 50. Below 50 the economy is contracting, so demand is shrinking exactly when external pressure lands.
- Weight15%
- Today52.1
- CadenceMonthly
- ConfidenceHigh
Where the trade-weighted currency sits against its own five-year average. A sharp deviation either imports inflation or destroys competitiveness — and it is what turns a foreign receivable into a loss.
- Weight20%
- Today+1.2%
- CadenceDaily
- ConfidenceMedium
Score = 0.40·Debt/GDP + 0.25·CDS + 0.20·REER deviation + 0.15·PMI (inverted), each input normalised 0–100. Confidence is stated per input rather than blended: the CDS print is market-priced today, while the debt figure moves on the IMF’s semi-annual cycle — trust them on different horizons.
Pressure is only half the story. Buffers decide the outcome.
Pro adds the cross-dimension amplifier, full sub-indicator history, comparable-crisis matching, your own receivables overlay and CDS threshold alerting.